General Election Poll Results

 

 

Bob Stefanowski emerged from the Republican primary very well positioned to win the race for Governor in November. While the Democrat holds a slight 4-point lead on the ballot, this is well within the poll’s margin of error. Further, this statistically tied ballot test is proof of Stefanowski’s strength when you consider that Democrats hold a 13-point registration advantage on the poll’s likely voter demographics.

 

Methodology:

This survey of political attitudes was conducted among 600 likely general election voters in Connecticut from August 20th – 23rd, 2018. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with actual general election voter turnout. The accuracy of the sample of 600 likely general election voters in Connecticut is within +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.

This survey was a scientifically and statistically valid survey of likely general election voters, drawn from a database of actual voters.
McLaughlin & Associates makes every effort to ensure we are speaking with registered voters with a history of voting, or newly registered voters who indicate they are likely to vote. Thirty percent (39%) of all interviews were conducted on cell phones.

 

Survey Highlights:

After nearly 8 years of Democrat control under Dan Malloy, Connecticut voters are ready for change.
Only 22% say Connecticut is heading in the right direction, while over two-thirds, 67%, say Connecticut is heading down the wrong track.

Ned Lamont supporter, Governor Dan Malloy’s opinion rating is in direct correlation to the direction of the state. Malloy receives a 24% favorable opinion rating and 66% unfavorable rating.

• Conversely, Bob Stefanowski who is just now being introduced to the general electorate in Connecticut  receives a solid 38% favorable rating, with low negatives of just 23% unfavorable. This explains why Ned Lamont has gone negative so quickly and why he is attacking Bob Stefanowski.

• Frequent candidate Ned Lamont on the other hand is well known to the voters, and yet he only receives a 40% favorable rating, and a relatively high 31% unfavorable rating. Even after his failed bids for Governor and Senate, he still doesn’t have a favorable rating over 50%.

• On the ballot, Bob Stefanowski receives 44%, Lamont 48%, and 7% are undecided. This 4-point difference is within the survey’s margin of error, and it also reflects published media polls. What’s more telling is when we look at the ballot by key voter segments:

 

When we look at voters who have an opinion of both candidates, either favorable orunfavorable (which is over half the sample), Bob Stefanowski leads, 54% to Lamont 45% with 2% undecided. So the voters who know the candidates best prefer Bob Stefanowski decisively.

o Also, the 54% of all voters who are paying the most attention to the race, those who scored a 10 on a scale of ZERO to TEN in their interest of the race, Bob Stefanowski leads, 51% to 44%.

o Independent voters favor Bob Stefanowski at 48%, to Lamont at 40%, with 12% undecided.

o Among the 3 in 4 voters, 78%, who have heard of both candidates, Stefanowski leads 49% to 45%.

o The only voter group that Lamont leads with are the one-in-six voters who have never heard of Bob Stefanowski. Since Ned Lamont is a long-time politician, he is better known than Bob Stefanowski. As Bob gets better known, he will be better liked and will take the lead. Ned
Lamont’s false, negative attack ad and his phony tax plan is a futile attempt to stop that from happening.

 

Conclusion:

With enough resources, Bob Stefanowski can continue to bring his message to the voters in Connecticut and win the race for Governor. The voters are ready for a change and Bob Stefanowski has the experience, plan, and momentum to win in November.

 

Key Voter Demographics:

About McLaughlin & Associates:

McLaughlin & Associates is a national survey research and strategic services company whose personnel have played a key role in electing candidates at all levels across the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia and LatinAmerica. We have worked for President Donald J. Trump, 5 sitting United States Senators and 19 sitting members of Congress; Governors, and multiple retired officials. We specialize in public opinion research, media planning and buying services, and strategic consulting services.